Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Media Coverage

Nov 2, 2017|MSNBC

House Unveils Tax Plan After Delay

Gillian Tett & Maya McGuineas break down the tax plan & appointing new fed chair on Andrea Mitchell Reports.

Nov 2, 2017|The Washington Post

The GOP’s bill is ‘a sensible framework’ — but ‘still a deficit-exploding tax cut’ for the rich and corporations

Budget experts say the GOP’s decision jeopardizes what could otherwise be one of the great legacies of Republican-controlled government: fixing the U.S. tax code and improving the economy.

“I do think this is a sensible framework. It emphasizes the need for corporate reforms and how our tax system works,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “But this is still a deficit-exploding tax cut at a time when the deficit is at near-record levels.”

Nov 2, 2017|USA Today

Tax plan offered by Republicans meets some GOP resistance

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said that of the tax cuts in the plan, $1 trillion would go to businesses over the next 10 years, $200 billion would go to individuals, and $200 billion would go to estates as the current estate tax is phased out over six years.

"It includes a number of gimmicks, including allowing certain provisions to expire, that could ultimately result in more than $1.5 trillion of new deficits," said Maya MacGuineas, the committee's president. "The bill also continues to rely on unrealistic economic growth assumptions to justify its cost."

Nov 16, 2017|The New York Times

Bill Signals Top Tax Priority of G.O.P. Is to Help Corporations

Canceling those looming increases would further add to the federal budget deficit, if the move is not paired with spending cuts. Middle-class families planning ahead can imagine two possible consequences from that decision: Either an immediate increase in their taxes eight years from now, or an explosion in federal budget deficits, which could necessitate spending cuts to safety net programs like Social Security and Medicare.

“The bill reflects talking out of both sides of your mouth at the same time — neither of which is leading to good policy,” said Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 16, 2017|CNN Money

Senate tax cuts are permanent for businesses but temporary for you

And just as lawmakers in 2012 chose to make the majority of Bush tax cuts "permanent," Republicans are likely banking on a future Congress to do the same in 2025.

"Does anyone really believe Congress will allow the individual tax cuts to sunset in eight years? This is an obvious ruse to hide very real costs and make more room for debt-financed cuts and giveaways," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 15, 2017|The New York Times

Republicans May Use Cuts in Entitlement Programs to Reduce Deficit

If Republicans decide to try to circumvent the pay-as-you-go rule, it could be taken as a sign that they are not serious about deficit reduction. For Democrats, it could be enticing to show the public the consequences of Republican-driven tax cuts, but it would be difficult for them to essentially support cuts to a government program that provides health insurance for the elderly.

“At the end of the day, it is somewhat akin to the debt limit that no one actually wants to let it happen,” said Ed Lorenzen, a senior adviser for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, who noted that spending would eventually have to be addressed if Republicans used the deficit to finance tax cuts.

Nov 15, 2017|CBS News

The House GOP tax bill: Will it pass? The whip count so far

Another consideration is the use of reconciliation to move the bill. It gives Republicans the ability to pass the measure with a simple majority in the Senate, but creates some hurdles, most notably the need to limit the cost of the bill to what was set by the budget resolution. The Senate and House agreed on a bill that would allow them to add $1.5 trillion to the debt (which budget watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget assess as already excessive). 

Nov 15, 2017|The Washington Post

Even the White House seems to be admitting tax cuts won’t pay for themselves

Many mainstream economists agree that reducing taxes would stimulate the economy somewhat as businesses and families go out and spend more. They also say the government would get additional tax revenue, but not nearly enough to offset what was lost from the lower rates.

The economy would have to grow 6 to 8 percent faster in the next decade to fully offset the costs of the bill, according to numerous respected economists, including those at the Tax Policy Center, the Tax Foundation, the Committee for a Responsible Fiscal Budget and the Penn Wharton Budget Model. The White House is estimating only 3 to 5 percent growth.

Nov 15, 2017|The Washington Post

‘Fiddler on the Roof’ explains the GOP tax bill. Here’s how.

The House and Senate measures differ in details, but both play the same hide-the-cost games to disguise the real price — the House to the tune of $400 billion, the Senate clocking in at $515 billion, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. By the way, those numbers understate things, because they don’t include the cost of paying interest on the additional debt.

Nov 15, 2017|NBC

Some Senate Republicans concerned about lumping health care in tax plan

After failing three times to repeal Obamacare, Senate Republicans are trying part of it again, but the move has some moderate Republicans nervous.

Nov 15, 2017|San Francisco Chronicle

Editorial: Republicans’ faith-based tax cuts

Though Republicans cite the growth that followed President Ronald Reagan’s tax reforms, which took place when top rates were much higher, economic expansion has not reliably followed tax reductions and has sometimes accompanied increases. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes, studies suggest growth will offset at most about a third of the tax cuts, partly because adding public debt does countervailing economic harm.

Nov 15, 2017|Yahoo! Finance

Those Republican tax cuts will become tax hikes

If Republicans were being completely forthright, they’d acknowledge this. They’d admit there’s a large risk corporate tax cuts won’t trickle down to ordinary workers, as a roomful of CEOs seemed to indicate at a recent Wall Street Journal conference. They’d confirm analysis by groups such as the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget showing that between 65% and 80% of the net tax cut will accrue to businesses, with only a small portion applying to working- and middle-class taxpayers. They might even stick their neck out and point out that the federal tax burden on the typical family has declined slightly in recent years, suggesting there’s no urgent need to cut taxes for most individuals.

Nov 15, 2017|Huffington Post

Republicans Aren’t Sweating The Procedural Obstacles To Tax Reform

Marc Goldwein, a policy expert with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, complained that neither Democrats nor Republicans seem to care about massive budget deficits when they’re in power. He would rather see Republicans reduce the deficit impact of their tax bill than just wave it away with a separate piece of legislation.

“It just seems like in Washington fiscal responsibility is a weapon, not an ideology,” Goldwein said.

Nov 15, 2017|Axios

GOP tax plan could add more to deficit than analyses suggest

The nonpartisan think tank Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says extending the sunsets in the future would "add over $350 billion to the cost of the bill" and bring the deficit impact closer to $2 trillion. A Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis similarly found the plan would add more than $2 trillion over 10 years.

Nov 15, 2017|Salon

Social Security on the chopping block: How the GOP plans to fix its own budget mess

The Congressional Budget Office "warned that the tax bill could set off an arcane budget rule" which would drastically cut funding for Medicare over the next decade and as much as $25 billion next year, according to Times:

The pay-as-you-go law requires that legislation that adds to the federal deficit be paid for with spending cuts or other offsets. If that does not happen, automatic cuts to programs like Medicare kick in. The Medicare cuts, which are capped at 4 percent of the program’s annual spending, could reach almost a half trillion dollars over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 15, 2017|Washington Examiner

Democrats tee off on Senate GOP making individual tax cuts temporary

If the costs of renewing the breaks were included in the score of the bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it would score as a bigger tax cut than advertised. The added tax cut would be $240 billion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an outside group that advocates lower deficits.

Nov 14, 2017|The Washington Post

Democrats have leverage in one part of the GOP tax cut process

Medicare alone could lose $25 billion in funding next year if paygo were to go into effect, according to a new Congressional Budget Office report. Customs and Border Patrol, the Student Loan Administration and the Military Retirement Fund would also face the scalpel, according to an analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. (Unlike Medicare, Social Security and most other safety net programs like food stamps are exempt from paygo cuts.)

Nov 14, 2017|NPR

CHARTS: Here's How GOP's Tax Breaks Would Shift Money To Rich, Poor Americans

Altogether, $1 trillion of the $1.5 trillion cost of the House bill would go toward business, according to an initial analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — $2.2 trillion in cuts, minus $1.2 trillion in business tax increases. Meanwhile, around $300 billion will go to individuals: $3.3 trillion in tax cuts for individuals, minus $3 trillion in tax increases.

Nov 14, 2017|Vox

The Republican tax reform bill will live and die by this obscure Senate rule

One way this happens, floated by Zach Moller, a senior policy analyst for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, is what he calls the “Title Gambit.” Republicans could split up their tax bill into three separate titles: One would be a temporary Republican-led effort that would pursue aggressive tax cuts; a second would be permanent and comply with Senate rules; and the third would be a permanent bipartisan proposal needing 60 votes that would likely find consensus around issues like the child tax credit or doubling the standard deduction. By going this route, Republicans would be able to split the impact of the deficit between budget reconciliation bills and regular order.

Nov 14, 2017|The Financial Times

Republicans throw Obamacare repeal into tax debate

Congress would have to vote to overturn the effects of the PAYGO rules, and that would involve Democratic votes in the Senate. Doing so could throw up resistance from Republicans who are worried about the scale of government borrowing.

Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said he believed the most likely outcome was that Congress ends up waiving the “sequester” imposed by the PAYGO rules. “It shows how far members are willing to go to avoid fiscal responsibility,” he said.

Nov 14, 2017|Yahoo! Finance

CBO: House GOP tax plan triggers $25 billion in Medicare cuts

In a response to the CBO’s letter, Rep. Hoyer issued a statement, noting the broad impact beyond the deficit on the program cuts, adding that he actually wrote the “pay as you go” law, and called for a bipartisan lawmaking process.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the “pay as you go rules” were passed with bipartisan support.

Nov 14, 2017|Newsweek

What Is Trump’s Tax Reform? Everything To Know About The Plan For America’S Rich

Is Donald Trump really draining the swamp? Not so much. He’s just changing the water. The December holidays are about a month away, but the Republicans are already decorating their bill with trillions of sparkly ornaments. The biggest giveaways include a huge reduction in the corporate income tax rate—from 35 percent to 20 percent—and the elimination of the estate tax. (It affects only a few thousand extremely wealthy families, including the Trumps and their in-laws, the Kushners.) Beyond the bill’s big-ticket items, there are small ones that have special interests eager to hire top talent like Mottur to cover their assets. He’s loath to talk about what he’s doing behind the scenes, but he’s urging clients to remember that any deduction Congress preserves means lawmakers have to find another perk to eliminate. “It’s like moving place cards for a wedding,” says Maya MacGuineas, the head of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a D.C.-based think tank focused on the deficit. “If you cut one thing, you have to replace it with another.”

Nov 14, 2017|Mic

Republican tax bill could slash $25 billion from Medicare, CBO says

The CBO said $25 billion of those cuts would come from Medicare, the popular social insurance program that provides health care to seniors age 65 and up.

The remaining $111 billion in cuts would come from “agriculture subsidies, student loans, the Social Services Block Grant program and mandatory spending in the Affordable Care Act other than exchange subsidies and Medicaid expansion,” according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 14, 2017|The Hill

GOP tax bill could spur $25 billion in Medicare cuts: CBO

Of the remaining $111 billion, CBO estimated that the OMB would only be able to cut $85 billion to 90 billion.

But that also means that the nonexempted accounts would be virtually wiped out.

Those include agricultural subsidies, some health funds linked to the Affordable Care Act, Customs and Border Patrol operations and funds in the Student Loan Administration, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budgetary watchdog group.

Nov 13, 2017|The Washington Post

If the tax bill is so great, why does the GOP keep lying about it?

In fact, it’s not even the biggest tax cut in the past five years, in either inflation-adjusted dollar terms or as a share of gross domestic product, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 13, 2017|The Washington Post

The most compelling criticism of Trump tax plan

Moreover, since CBPP doubts the child tax credit and the business expensing provisions will be allowed to expire, “the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that continuing them after their expiration in 2023 would add roughly $400 billion to the cost of the bill over the decade. These additional costs and the associated debt service would boost the debt-to-GDP ratio to 99 percent by 2027.”

Nov 13, 2017|The Wall Street Journal

Republicans Work to Make Tax Bill Meet Senate Rules

As written, the Senate Republican tax bill doesn’t comply with what is known as “the Byrd Rule,” which prevents the Senate from passing tax and spending measures on simple majority votes if they increase budget deficits beyond 10 years.

“It literally cannot pass the Senate. It’s against the rules unless they have 60 votes,” said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Nov 13, 2017|Los Angeles Times

Senate Republicans must still figure out how to eliminate tax bill's deficit after 10 years

No congressional analysis has been done yet of the budgetary impact of the Senate Republican tax bill in 2028.

But the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has estimated that the House bill would add about $155 billion to the deficit in 2028, violating the Byrd rule.

Nov 12, 2017|The New York Times

Paradise Papers Show How Misguided the G.O.P. Is on Taxes

The groups that are already dodging taxes through offshore accounting are the ones that make out with the biggest benefits. According to an analysis by the conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, $1 trillion of the overall $1.5 trillion cost is from cuts for businesses.

Nov 12, 2017|The Atlantic

The Republican Tax Bills Are About to Shrink

The proposal House Republicans approved in the Ways and Means Committee last week meets the first test but not the second: Steep cuts to the corporate and individual tax rates would cost more money than the government would bring in through the elimination of popular deductions and exemptions, even when accounting for economic growth.

The Senate “has an even bigger problem,” said Ed Lorenzen, a senior adviser for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The bill released on Thursday differs from the House proposal in a number of respects. While it completely eliminates the deduction for state and local taxes, it maintains the mortgage interest tax deduction and a few other expensive tax breaks. The Senate bill also reduces the income tax rate paid by the wealthiest earners, while the House bill does not. “The Senate bill on a permanent ongoing basis has a much larger cost, a much larger deficit than the House bill,” Lorenzen told me.

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